Exit Polls: SP leading in UP, Cong in other states

The Samajwadi Party (SP) is expected to emerge as the single-largest party in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, according to exit polls. The Congress Party is ahead in at least three of the other four states where elections were held.

The final round of voting in the seven-phase assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh concluded on Saturday. The results of the polls in all five states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur will start pouring in on March 6, Tuesday.

Star News-Nielsen Exit poll predicts a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh. The poll forecasts Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP to be the single largest party with a tally of 160 in the 403-seat house, and 26 per cent vote share.

A CNN-IBN-The Week survey predicted a near landslide for SP. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is predicted to get just 86 seats with 24 per cent vote share, indicating that the chief minister Mayawati-led government couldn’t weather the anti-incumbency storm. The BSP secured 206 seats on its own five years ago when it returned to power.

According to Star News-Nielsen Exit poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be the third largest party in the state with a tally of 80 seats, just six seats less than the ruling BSP. The BJP will garner a vote share of 18 per cent.

While Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi’s tireless campaigning does not seem to create any wonders at the hustings, the party is predicted to more than double its figure of 22 in 2007 to 58 this time. The Congress’s ally, Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is expected to win 12 seats. The CNN-IBN poll predicted a slide in Congress’s vote share.

The India TV-C voter exit poll, too, shows the SP emerging as the single largest party with 141 seats followed by the BSP at 126. The Congress, according to the India TV poll, is predicted to get only 36 seats and the BJP will do much better with 83 seats.

According to another exit poll conducted by News 24-Chanakya, the SP will grab 185 seats, falling 17-seat short of a simple majority in the assembly. The BSP will get only 85 seats, followed by the BJP and Congress with 55 seats each.

In Punjab, according to a News 24 exit polls, Congress could score a decisive victory with 60 seats in the 117-member House. In Uttarakhand, the race is tightening between the Congress (30 seats) and the BJP (28 seats).

Congress is ahead in the other states. The exit polls predict that the Congress will have a clear edge in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur. In Goa, the fight is very tight between the BJP and the ruling Congress.

In Goa, India TV-C projected the BJP getting 20 seats, followed by the Congress with 17. Others were shown emerging victorious in three constituencies.

The same team forecast a Congress victory in Punjab (65) followed by the Akali Dal-BJP combine winning 47 and others getting five.

In Uttarakhand, News24-Today’s Chanakya gave the Congress an edge with 30 seats and the BJP 28. Others were given 12 seats.

The same team forecast a win for the Congress in Punjab, with the party getting 60 seats, followed by the Akali Dal-BJP combine getting 52. Others were projected to win five seats.

In Manipur, the team forecast a Congress win with 25 seats, followed by the NCP (10 seats) and the Trinamool Congress (9).