The UPA is losing ground, and the NDA is improving its prospects for the next general elections, which might likely see a hung Parliament. This is the finding of the India Today-ORG Mood of the Nation poll.
In the last six months, UPA’s electoral standing has slipped dramatically. The Congress has imploded. If a general election were to be held now, Congress would get around 110 seats, and the BJP around 140 seats.
Interestingly, BJP’s Narendra Modi has emerged as the preferred prime ministerial candidate, ahead of Rahul Gandhi by a 7 percent margin. While 24 percent favoured Modi as PM, only 17 percent are in favour of the young Gandhi.
Non-UPA and non-NDA parties are the real gainers of Congress decline. This is the first time since 1996 that neither of the two leading alliances, UPA and NDA, will be anywhere close to the majority mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha.
Rahul Gandhi is the clear choice for leadership of the Congress. Narendra Modi is the public’s preference for the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. Modi beats Rahul by a 7 per cent margin in a face-off for the next prime minister.
Those who think Anna Hazare is politically dead will find themselves badly wounded. In a straight contest from any constituency with Rahul, Hazare would win by a landslide.
Those who believe corruption is no longer an issue will fare worse. The PM’s image has suffered because he is perceived as doing nothing.
The two top rated chief ministers, Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, who lead the competition by some margin, are from the NDA.
These are some of the remarkable findings of the INDIA TODAY-ORG Mood of the Nation Poll conducted in January 2012. In a nutshell, the next Parliament could see a prime minister from neither the Congress nor BJP. The situation is reminiscent of 1996, but hopefully there will be a PM with more staying power than a H.D. Deve Gowda or I.K. Gujral.
The detailed findings are published in the latest edition (dated February 6, 2012) of India Today.
